So you’ve got a race coming up and you’re trying to figure out what you’re capable of running if you’re just “tough enough”. Maybe you just had a huge race with a great PR and you do some mental math. Maybe you have been running your easy days at X:XX pace. Maybe you plugged in an old race time into one of those fancy “race-time predictor” calculators. Maybe you’re on the VDOT system and it tells you what your time “should be”.
How do you go about predicting what your goal time and race pace should be for a new and upcoming race, particularly when that race is a different distance?
WELL, LET’S START WITH WHAT WE SHOULDN’T DO. DON’T TAKE ANYTHING FROM A CALCULATOR OR VDOT AS THE GOSPEL.
Why not? A few reasons:
1. Assuming perfect training –
Those calculators work through formulas based off the assumption that you…